The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll results ...http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5survey.6408850may18,0,7302110.story
on Sunday's front page claim to show "signs of progress" for Allentown's image perception. Hmm. Let's take a look beyond the headline ...
* The poll surveyed only "405 Adults" which allows it to just barely squeak by the standard minimum 400 respondents required for statistical validity.
* 82% (!) of the poll respondents were "White/Caucasian" and what does that mean, really REALLY white? (with 4% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Latino, 2% Asian, 1% Native American, 2% Mixed Race).
* 57% were female.
* 21% (the majority of respondents) reported annual family income "over $100,000."
So ... looks like most respondents were Wealthy White White Women.
Okay so (let's play along for a minute) what do these Wealthy White White Women think? Well ...
*48% (the majority) think Allentown is headed in the "Wrong Direction."
* 45% (the majority) have a "Somewhat Negative" view of the city.
* 56% (the majority) said "Crime" is their #1 reason for their negative view.
And yet, The Morning Call's headline and sub-head accompanying Mayor Pawlowski's trance-like smiling face says:
"Image Overhaul ... poll shows signs of progress"
Hey. I've got nothing against optimism. But isn't this Junk Science?
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24 comments:
I'd call it "Bunk Science" and typical Morning Call framed agenda baloney, laziness, and arrogance. Geez. If you're gonna rig a poll for a front page story, have your survey methodology be somewhat believable ...
Anybody with a sense of reality will know that TMC's report and the poll conducted is ridiculous. Paul Muschick wrote a real POS.
I wonder if Pawlowski & Co. left the good, kind folks at Denny's an appropriate tip.
this isn't the first favor muhlenberg-morning call did for pawlowski. the mule poll had hedyt leading ed by 7 points, ed won by 20, so the college was off by 27 points, there's real science for you. this possible they're twisted enough to manipulate the figures to energize one party over the other? admittedly, i have a bone to pick, the morning call justified excluding me from the debate because of figures from the same poll. so a college collaborated with a biased newspaper in disenfranchising the first independent candidate in decades.
I wonder if this poll was an on-line survey? They did not say. If it was, that would exclude a lot of people from participating.
I remember taking an on-line survey not too long ago, with similar questions, but I believe it was info for future visioning meetings.
Yeah, I hate to admit it but the statical outcome from the Visions meeting was WAY off. It had people living 0-3 miles in downtown Allentown making annual salaries of $46,000.00 and driving Nissans.
Alfonso
The Morning Call can do anything it wants to do and get away with it. In this case, it took a statistically skewed and laughably invalid survey sample that basically refutes "signs of progress" ... and used it anyway to "support" its rosy headline about people's perceptions of Allentown showing signs of progress. Maybe there are signs of progress but this junk science poll surely does not show it.
"Anybody with a sense of reality will know that TMC's report and the poll conducted is ridiculous." -a.j.
Don't count on it. I didn't read all 100+ comments on the poll article at mcall.com (i scanned some of them) but I'll betcha a buck that not too many (if any) commenters up there noticed the ridiculousness of the "newspaper's" survey methodology. And The Morning Call counts on this kind of superficiality. It's two biggest articles today are on American Idol and Dancing with the Stars and its above the logo teaser trumpets "HUGE TV WEEK." What, no puppies?
I read the first 60 or so comments and I don't recall a mention of how bogus the survey was. If this was a random survey then why were 82% of people surveyed white/caucasian? To me that number really stands out. People should be outraged at such shoddy journalism. BUt they won't be. Sadly they will forget this and move on to American Idol. "Puppies" was the big story LAST week.
does anyone know why the poll has "hispanic" and "latino" as 2 separate categories?
Bill and Dottie,
Take a closer look at the comments. The people don't reflect the poll too much but they recognize that Pawlowski is full of shit.
Comment #3: The mayor has not done one thing to improve the police department.
Comment #4: So Pawloski is trying to dupe more wealthy suburbanites into thinking crime is only a perception in Allentown.
Comment #13: The Morning Call is no help either because if they printed half of what goes on, people would be up in arms. The mayor should have thought about all of this from day 1.
Comment #14: What a loser, a legend in his own mind. What city is he living in, Oz?
I didn't see the article, but this does sound like a ridiculous poll. I am not a fan of polls in the first place. Everytime I read about one that pertains to the primary election it angers me. How can 500 people speak the minds of thousands of voters?
Like Mrs. Dottie pointed out, most of the respondents of the local poll were wealthy white women - sounds like this poll never left the Muhlenberg faculty lounge or west end Allentown.
"... Pawlowski is full of shit." -a.j.
I don't know if this is true, or false, but I'm positive The Morning Call is full of shit.
Mayor Pawlowski, overall, doesn't bother me. I wasn't a city resident when he ran and I didn't vote for him, but from what I figure, he inherited an incredible mess from Afflerbach, what with those enormous police pensions and all. I think he's doing a decent job. At least I think things haven't gotten worse (thank god) on his watch.
To Alfonso -
I was rather surprised at the income figures listed at the visioning meeting. My hubby pointed out to me that the area within 0-3 mi. of downtown is quite large. In 2.5 miles from downtown you can get to South Whitehall at Roth/Walbert ave. and Rt. 22, which is a nice area. That made me then believe the $46k income figure could be true.
Thanks for the info. I may have to rethink and research my logic because I may be wrong. Thanks again for the info.
Alfonso
And what is the Reason for making the Survey.
It seems Allentown is catching hell from all sides
whats up \.
Here's a link to the survey.
Also interesting is that 62% of people surveyed had no kids under 18.
http://www.mcall.com/media
/acrobat/2008-05/38890844.pdf
74% of people surveyed do not live in the city of A-town.
Scroll to question 25 and continue. These are questions about A-town.
The survey was a random phone survey.
he inherited an incredible mess from Afflerbach, what with those enormous police pensions and all. I think he's doing a decent job. At least I think things haven't gotten worse (thank god) on his watch.
First, outstanding analysis by Dottie.
Second, I respectfully disagree with Sarina's statement.
Pawlowski has encouraged a lot of investment in Allentown, but has sweetened deals with public handouts and tax concesssions. The blue bloods love that, but that should be a sign to the rest of us.
While pandering to the Lehigh Valley Partnership, he ignored the plight of small businesses along Hamilton Street when bus routes weere changed, claiming it wasn't his problem. Because the Morning Call benefitted financially from those routing changes, it refused to run a single story about the plight of local mercahnts until Channel 69 picked up on it.
Real estate agents leasing the farr lofts and other "hot" properties have told prospective tenants that the city is sweeping the riff raff out of the way. But that includes the working poor whose only crime is lack of wealth.
Pawlowski has developed the legal bribery in our "pay to play" campaign finance laws to a fine art, collecting money this year at a big fundraiser but filing no report. He paid a $270 fine last year rather than file a timely report. The MC ran no story about that. Many of his contributors are city workers and contractors.
He served as A-town's second highest officer under Afflerbach, helping create many of the problems he now claims he wants to fix. He hardly inherited these problems.
Worst of all, he has allowed public safety to continue to deteriorate, ignoring the three pledges he made when he ran for office. He has instead pretended there really is only a "perception" problem.
Those who disagree with him or his policies are marginalized and derided. I thought MM was a nut myself until I sat down and really listened to him one day. Criticism aimed at Mayor Ed is equated with criticism of Allentown.
He's been a bad mayor his first two years in office. Allentown and its mayor need to do much better.
Politicians, whether honest or crooked, Democrat or Republican, are a dime a dozen.
A newspaper on the other hand represents a sacred trust and should be trustworthy.
The Morning Call cannot be trusted.
That's the real issue here ...
" ... outstanding analysis by Dottie." -Bernie
Indeed. But not to worry Dottie, Bill White won't steal this topic from you ...
RE:"Indeed. But not to worry Dottie, Bill White won't steal this topic from you ..."
Well, it's a HUGE TV week so Dancin' and Idol take precedence. Give the readers what they want.
Bernie,
I'm not a Pawlowski fan, per se, but I do think he has a lot of work cut out for him.
Allentown does have many problems, but I think many of them are a cumulative effect of many mayors (Ed included) and councils looking the other way while the city rotted. I don't think Pawlowski is doing a great job, but I appreciate the effort he's made to increase the police force. I saw that they recently inducted a whole slew of new cops - that unfortunately are not yet ready to get on the street - but it's a step. That's been my main concern. And I do think Afflerbach should've been forcibly removed from office for allowing so many cops to retire so early, at such high pensions, while the city was facing an influx of gang related crime. (I don't know for sure, but I don't think Mayor Ed, working in economic development, was involved in that debacle.) I heard from an old cop that for years the city's stance was to ignore the gang issue and not even used the word - kind of like, if we ignore the problem it will go away. I think we can all agree that's been a horrible stance.
As for the grants, I think some small grants made to homegrown business owners is a responsible step for revitalizing downtown. But huge grants and tax incentives at the taxpayers' expense is foolish.
"Give the readers what they want." -Sam Zell
I want more investigative reports on puppy mills ...
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